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Technical Analysis – The answer to “When to buy?”

Why Should I Consider Technical Analysis?

For questions like “What to buy?” requires fundamental analysis. But when someone asks, “When to buy?” This is when technical analysis comes into play. Technical analysis is the other approach of investing. When you talk about technical analysis, you’re looking at things like charts, chart patterns, technical indicators, etc. It gives you a visual information about how the stock price moves for the minute, the hour, the day, week and even month! This information is useful because it can give you a better sense of how the stock is doing right at the moment. Fundamental analysts usually have to deal with information that isn’t updated because company reports would only come out quarterly, or even annually! Many things happen in between the quarters but you could possibly be trading based on the previous quarter’s results which may no longer be relevant.

Pure technical analysts are not interested in the research of a company’s fundamentals because the way a stock price moves would have indicated how much everyone thinks the stock is generally worth. When an undervalued stock moves because it was uncovered by a fundamental analyst, it wouldn’t be missed by technical analyst who watch price-volume action of a share price. As long as a stock moves, the technical analysts will be there watching it as well! Price movements can give a technical analyst a lot of information such as breakouts, psychology of the market players, trend, reversal patterns, etc. These days, there are a lot of people relying on charts when buying a stock. You would only be putting yourself in a disadvantaged position if you choose not to avail yourself to the same information they are receiving. With more and more speculators in the market, fundamentals might be ignored for short moments and only technical analysis can help you for the moment to be profitable.

Here’s an example:

A pure fundamental analyst would not know where the support or the resistance is. He would know what the company should be valued at but he may not know when is the best time to enter. For example, NOL is down-trending from $2.30. A fundamental analyst values it at $1.50 based on Price-Book ratio, P/E ratio, or other metrics available to him. When NOL sells down to $1.50, the fundamental analyst would make the purchase because he thinks that is what it is worth. However, from a technical analyst point of view, he would wait to see if $1.50 is supported or not. If the price is not supported, he waits for the share price to continue falling and test the next support level at $1. When share price eventually gets to $1 and shows that it is supported with a high volume, the technical analyst buys it.

At the end of the day, both analysts got NOL, but the technical analyst got a better price because he knows that from past price movements that $1 is a strong psychological support and buys it at a support instead of simply buying it because he thinks that is what it is worth. Past price actions can give you a hint about the future price movement because of many reasons, largely psychological support and resistance levels. The fact is that many people are relying on such information, and if you aren’t, you will lose out and the market will not make sense to you. Having a visual image of how the stock market is going will be very much easier for you to find support levels such as in the case above.

Of course, this is not to say that technical analysis is 100% accurate and gives you pin-point accuracy. What it can provide you is more information that opens up your eyes to more opportunities for buying entries. There is always a time an investor will face where he says “I’m waiting for the right time to enter”. It could be a fundamentally sound company but simply trading too expensively and this is when technical analysis will tell you when the right time is. Or rather, give you a hint of when the right time is. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and the chart above could have gone in a totally different direction and crashed through $1 rather than stay supported on 2 more counts on Nov 2011 and May 2012. I used an old chart for the purpose of effectively sending my point across rather than try to teach based on current prices where even I don’t know where the future is. No one can predict how the future price will move, they can only get a vague idea of it. By effectively utilising both fundamental and technical analysis, you would put yourself in a profitable position where the odds of a profitable trade is higher.

Important Disclaimer

The above chart is for teaching purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy/sell.

4 Great Things You Learn Indirectly When Investing

Like you, I was young and fresh to the world of investing. I was 18 and finally eligible to invest! I remember thinking to myself; I can finally put everything that I have learnt into practice! Along the way, I have learnt so much more, directly and indirectly, about investing.

1) Saving

The first obvious thing about investing is that you can’t even start it when you have nothing to start with. My growing interest in investment was a very strong motivation for me to save. I knew I had to have enough to get into the playground of the rich. Diligently, I put aside half my allowance every week and continued that way for months. Eventually, I had enough to make my first investment. From there on, I never stopped the habit of saving at least half my allowance to put into investments. You’ll be surprised how little you actually need once you begin on this journey of budgeting your week. Also, I advocate cash payments instead of credit cards because it is easier to track how much you have left and be less likely to overspend or spend unnecessarily.

2) No more reckless purchases

Having begun investing and seeing the kind of return it can give, I learnt to forsake a lot of luxury purchases just because my friends around me have it. A $1000 investment can make me $100 or it could buy me some stuff that I don’t really need and impede on my investing journey of creating a sizable portfolio. I chose to focus on growing my investment portfolio instead of indulging in luxury purchases. Of course, that’s not to say that it’s wrong to indulge. Indulge when necessary, not all the time!

Eg. If I wanted to buy something $100, I would want to make that $100 off the market before buying it instead of using my capital of $1000, depleting it to just $900. If you choose not to spend, you’ll still be rewarded with the compounded growth! This method of spending teaches you to delay gratification and to give you time to think twice before making a purchase. Also, you will cherish and enjoy your purchase even more, knowing that it comes from the fruit of your investment. You not only get what you want, you learn valuable lessons about investing as well!

3) Investing shows your true self

Investing will show you your true self and what kind of a person you truly are when money is involved. Are you the same person when you make a lot of money or lose a lot of money? When I first started investing, I definitely did not expect that I would be in for an emotional roller coaster ride. One moment I was feeling good about myself for making the right decision to buy a particular stock. The next moment I was feeling angry at myself for being greedy to want more instead of taking my profits. From profits, they turned into losses. Over the years, I have grown to stabilise my emotions and accept that market swings are normal. I was then able to embrace them and learn to see the bigger picture instead of allowing my emotions to get in the way over short-term market noises.

4) How well can you tolerate risk?

When it comes to risk tolerance, it is all about discipline. When the share price hits your target, are you willing to stick to your target and take your profits? Or, will you continue to let it run hoping that it continues to go further up and disregard your primary research on the existing resistance level? Too often, traders in the market lose money due to the lack of discipline to take profit or to cut their losses. We all know that it is best to ‘Buy low and Sell high’. However, when real money is involved, greed and fear often overcome logic. Discipline is what will keep your rationality and nurture emotional stability. This would eventually translate into profits that you put into your pocket!

8 Books Young Investors Should Read

Every young people should invest their money. That’s the best advice i heard since i was in college. When you are young and in your twenties, the most valuable asset is not money – but time.

When you are young, you not only have the time horizon to ride out market fluctuations, there are plenty of time for the effect of compounding to work in your favour. Investors who start young will have the flexibility to take on risk and recover from any missteps.

Many young investors procrastinate because they think that investment is confusing and trying to comprehend investment jargons is akin to reading the entire encyclopaedia. That’s a common mistake to make by not starting at all.

My favourite way of learning to pick up investment is to start reading books. Books are a good way to increase your knowledge of a particular topic as they were written by people who have had vast amount of experience in the field.

We picked 8 investment books to read for beginners. Unless you have a knack of picking winning lottery numbers or you were born with skills of a perfect investor, make sure you read a couple of these books before you start to ride the bull and bear roller coaster.

In no particular order:

1. The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham

Ever since it was first published in 1949, it has sold more than a million copies worldwide. If you do not know who Benjamin Graham is, you better know who Warren Buffett is – the second richest man in the world. Benjamin Graham is the mentor of Warren Buffett, so it is no doubt that this book is acclaimed as the “bible to investing”. In his book, Graham tries to explain behavioural investing and to develop an intrinsic valuation of a stocks. Despite being a heavy read, i highly recommend reading this before entering the stock market.

2. The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John C. Bogle

John Bogle is the founder and retired CEO of Vanguard Group which is one of the largest mutual fund provider in the U.S. He is also the person who created the first index mutual fund available to individual investor.

His philosophy of investing in index fund is clearly explained in his books where the stock market is a zero-sum game. For every stock that beats the market, there is a stock that doesn’t beat the market. That is to say for an average investor, half of the stocks picked would beat the market and half will not beat the market. What is left, is the investment less off fees – a net loss. His focus on costs minimisation and low-cost investing is his manifesto to success.

3. A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel

Malkiel explains both technical and fundamental analysis in this book where he thrashes out technical analysis as a “a run of luck or misfortune of the ordinary gambler”. The market is full of randomness and trying to impose any sense of order is spurious at best. He also talks about the bubbles throughout history: Tulipomania, Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the South Sea bubble and addresses market efficiency in his book.

4. Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. Shiller

As per book title, irrational exuberance purports the notion of human emotions as illogical herd mentality. His analysis was spot on and warned about the dot-com bubble before it crashes. He also challenged the efficient-market hypothesis where investors value a stock base on expectation of future dividend discounted to present value. His take? Market volatility was greater than what could be explained by any rational view of investors – taking reference to the performance of the U.S stock market since 1920s. A good read albeit being lengthy and verbose.

5. Why Stocks Go Up (and Down) by William Pike

This should be read before reading any other investment books. You will understand why as this book is packed with many investment fundamentals such as financial statement analysis, stock price valuation and more. Terms such as price/earning ratio, diluted earnings, enterprise value/EBITDA are succinctly explained in his book. Have a go at this first to build up a strong investment basics before loading yourself up with capital market maxims.

6. Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 by Maggie Mahar

We know that past prices is not an indicator of future performance – a common mistake every investors make. What’s a better lesson than learning and picking up from a mistake? Mara began by examining the history of the Dow since 1982 which hovered below 1000 before it peaked around 11,000 in 1999. It came to an end when it crashes in 2000. She teaches many valuable lesson in her book and noted that euphoria is self-blinding – a regular feature of every bull market. It is easier to pick trend rather than timing them.

7. One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market by Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch is touted as a legendary mutual-fund manager and in his book he advocates two rules which he stands strongly by: “Invest in what you understand” and “Invest in companies you like”. Average investors can beat any professionals and achieve financial success. He also offer guidance on investing for the long-term and how it can reward you. His style is witty and entertaining and offers a good read for anyone who wants to invest on their own.

8. Buffett: “The Making of an American Capitalist” by Roger Lowenstein

Nothing is better than learning more about the most successful investor Warren Buffett. Roger Lowenstein’s prose in his biography of Buffett is well-crafted. Besides knowing deep into Buffett and his family, this book shares insights on Buffett’s investment strategy and how he avoided the dot-com bubble. There were many “how-tos” and noted Buffett’s long-term strategy of focusing on undervalued stocks and holding them to their worth. A rather lengthy read but it pays to know how this man has amassed a fortune from investing where many would envy.

Note that the list is not exhaustive and neither of these books are money-making recipe. They form a bedrock to your future investment journey and there could be no better time to pick up these valuable knowledge when you are still young and intellectually competent.

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